With only a few days left until Super Tuesday, the Republican presidential primaries are reaching a climax. Unlike the 2008 Republican presidential primaries, when Arizona Senator John McCain had already wrapped up the nomination by March, no GOP candidate will likely have a majority of delegates until at least April or May. While Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney still has the best chance of winning, the race is still too fluid at this point.
Romney has spent most of the primaries trying to avoid any major mistakes or gaffes. While this has preserved his position as frontrunner, he still fails to inspire Republicans to vote for him. His unstimulating campaign as well as a questionable record of supporting moderate positions have allowed underdogs such as Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum to gain momentum.
The best approach for Romney is to keep conservatives divided and gain enough moderate voters to win swing states. The longer the primaries drag out, the less of a chance he has to win.
After a surprise victory in the Feb. 7 caucuses, Santorum has risen as Romney’s biggest obstacle to the nomination. For Santorum to win, he needs to perform well in the Midwest while hoping that Gingrich fades in the South. A strong performance on Super Tuesday would weaken Romney’s support and raise serious doubts about his candidacy.
However, with very few campaign funds to draw upon compared to Romney, Santorum will have to rely on the media narrative as well as grassroots support if he hopes to succeed. Unless one of the other candidates falters in some way, Santorum is likely to replace Gingrich as the conservative alternative.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul has largely run an unorthodox campaign, relying on strong grassroots support more than wealthy donors. While Paul has proven to be the most honest candidate in the entire race, his inability to sugarcoat his message and disregard for his image have largely crippled any chance he has for winning.
In the realm of politics, political positions do not matter as much as perceived image. In 2008, Romney positioned himself as more conservative than McCain, though his record clearly pointed otherwise. This year, Romney has taken a more moderate stance in order to increase his general election viability. Therein lies Paul’s greatest problem.
Regardless of whether or not his positions are correct or whether he is honest, as long as Paul is perceived as extremist, he has no chance at winning the nomination.
After a heated January, I predict the rest of the primary season will be relatively quiet. The presidential race will heat up again once the GOP nominee is chosen in August.
For more political opinion, read the Feb. 16 article, Point one: Solutions to fueling our nation’s future.
alexis fenster • Jan 27, 2012 at 12:02 am
Love the pink!
Logan Rood • Jan 27, 2012 at 12:02 am
I love our pink laces(: I think we should leave them on for the rest of the season. It definitely makes us stand out!
Laura Casuga • Jan 27, 2012 at 12:02 am
Love the pink laces. Good job, girls!