With three 2012 Republican presidential contests already past, the narrative for the race has drastically changed. While political pundits predicted a quick victory for Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, his stunning loss to former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich in the South Carolina primary has upended the entire process.
Amidst the volatility of the GOP primaries, from the allegations surrounding Herman Cain to Texas Governor Rick Perry’s horrid debate performances, Romney has maintained a steady performance focused on minimizing any potential damages to his campaign. This strategy seemingly payed off when January began, with Romney pulling off a narrow win in the Iowa Caucuses and sweeping the New Hampshire Primary. Meanwhile, poor performances caused Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann and Utah Governor Jon Huntsman to drop out.
The Republican establishment then declared that a Romney win in South Carolina would lock up the nomination. For a moment, it seemed that the excitement of the 2010 midterm elections would be drowned out by a disappointing primary contest.
However, last week’s event served to completely unravel Romney’s air of inevitability. First, back-to-back debate performances by Gingrich boosted his image, while Romney flopped over questions about releasing his tax returns.
Furthermore, a recount of the Iowa Caucus results also revealed that Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum had actually won, partially derailing Romney’s momentum. Additionally, Perry dropped out Jan. 19, endorsing Gingrich. While Perry had too few voters to really influence the primaries, his endorsement partially alleviated some conservatives’ concerns over Gingrich.
All of these factors turned a seemingly inevitable Romney victory into a double digit Gingrich upset. For the first time since the modern primary system began in 1980, there are three different winners of the first three contests.
As a result, Florida’s primary, set for Jan. 31, is set to be the tiebreaker. A resounding win by Romney could allow him to steer the nomination back into his direction. However, another Gingrich upset would drastically cripple Romney and force an unusually long two-man contest.
Meanwhile, Santorum’s luck is running out. While his surprise win in Iowa did undercut Romney, he has not received any boost out of it. While Gingrich could implode and leave Santorum the last conservative standing, such a scenario is more likely to benefit Romney.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul continues to run a delegates-focused campaign and is bypassing Florida’s winner-take-all primary. While Paul will accumulate a fairly large number of delegates before the Republican National Convention in August, the polarizing attitude Republicans hold towards him effectively eliminates any possibility winning the nomination. He will still likely influence the Republican national platform to move towards his libertarian ideals.
Romney needs a win in Florida to cancel any momentum Gingrich received from South Carolina. Meanwhile, Gingrich needs to adopt Romney’s early strategy of damage control without diminishing his appeal to the GOP base. Whoever wins in Florida will drastically change the shape of the race.
For more columns, read the Jan. 25 article, U.S. espionage requires new forms of intelligence-gathering.
Juan Ruelas • Jan 27, 2012 at 12:02 am
Trevor I had no idea you did choir or that you sang hahaha.
Ryan Neufeld • Jan 27, 2012 at 12:02 am
That is one good looking guy! That a boy Trev.
Chris Grossman • Jan 27, 2012 at 12:02 am
That’s a good look for Trevor…..
Trevor Beal • Jan 27, 2012 at 12:02 am
Lookin’ good, Trevor