With only one month remaining until GOP primary voters start casting their ballots, candidates are entering the final stretch. Yet only one will survive to the Republican Nominating Convention next August.

With Herman Cain suspending his campaign after numerous allegations of sexual misconduct, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has surged to the lead in national polls. Gingrich’s performance in the debates has been the primary reason for this surprising swell in popularity.

Yet, if the past is a likely indicator of the future, Gingrich will not be the frontrunner for long. Gingrich’s rhetoric has been his greatest weapon, as well as hindrance during his political career. While his debate performances earned him the lead, his campaign nearly imploded in the summer over stating that Congressman Paul Ryan’s Medicare plan amounted to “right-wing social engineering.”

Gingrich’s behavior also caused him to leave the House of Representatives after his fellow Republicans nearly revolted. If he manages to stay on message and resist the urge to attack other Republicans or become narcissistic, he has a decent chance at the nomination. Otherwise, conservatives will coalesce around another candidate.

Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has cruised through the primaries playing it safe. Even after other candidates led him in the polls, he refrained from going on the offense, instead allowing them to self-destruct on their own.

Yet his strong desire to avoid confrontation has prevented him from expanding his base. Conservatives continue to pass over Romney, going from one candidate to another.

Unless conservatives split, Romney’s presidential chances are staring to look increasingly slim. Moreover, unless President Barack Obama is the alternative, conservatives will not be likely to vote for Gingrich, with his personal baggage and flip-flops, over Romney.

The problem with Romney is that voters see him as insincere and untrustworthy. And, because he has refused to expose himself to excessive media attention, there is no way to change this narrative. His only hope is to rely on moderates and pray that conservatives splinter.

While any predictions may still be premature, it looks increasingly unlikely that Romney will win. Even if Gingrich fails, conservatives may rally around Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, former ambassador to China and Utah Governor Jon Huntsman or even Texas Governor Rick Perry. Romney’s campaign has lost it by choosing to play it safe rather than take a risk.

For more political columns, read the Dec. 8 article, OWS represents inevitable circumstances.